ex ante policy assessment and the utilisation of knowledge in the policy process

Procedures for the ex ante assessment of public policies are currently in vogue across the OECD. Their design is typically informed by an instrumentally rational model of problem solving, which assumes that knowledge is collected, evaluated and then trans-lated straightforwardly into 'better policies'. This model has, it seems, been little af-fected by more than three decades of academic research which has demonstrated thathe reality of every-day policy- making is far messier. This paper analyses whether the uptake of ex ante assessment of policies is nonetheless capable of providing new op-portunities for knowledge to inform processes of policy deliberation and learning. Drawing on an analysis of policy assessment procedures in three countries and the European Commission, it finds that there are several ways in which assessment knowl-edge is used in the policy process. Moreover, its argues that policy learning occurs de-spite, rather than because of the instrumental design of the new assessment proce-dures, which tends to act as a barrier to open deliberation and knowledge utilisation

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development

Тепловой расходомер

Полезная модель относится к области измерительной техники, а именно к тепловым устройствам для измерения расхода жидких или газообразных сред, и может быть использована в химической, электронной, энергетической и других отраслях промышленности

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Malaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience

Social learning in the Anthropocene : Governance of natural resources in human dominated systems

We live in the Anthropocene – an age where humans dominate natural systems – and there is ample evidence that our current practices degrade the capacity of natural systems to provide us with natural resources. How we, as humans, organize and learn, in communities and among state and other societal actors, constitute a decisive factor for both local management of natural resources and the functioning of the planet Earth. In other words, the outcome of learning has become a matter of governance across multiple levels. This thesis studies the role of social learning in governance of natural resources, asking the following three overarching questions: i) What are the institutional barriers limiting better environmental governance at different scales? ii) Is there a causal connection between social learning and better environmental governance? iii) What are the normative challenges with better environmental governance or social-ecological resilience being linked to the adaptive capacity of actors to learn socially? The primary method is semi-structured in-depth interviews. Papers provide results on institutional barriers such as competency traps and show how customs and current practices and collaborations limit better environmental governance. It is found that social learning might, and might not, lead to better environmental governance, and the causal connection between social learning and better environmental governance is found to be rather weak, with both variables depending on other factors. Enabling policy, a mandate to make broad assessments, or an engaged leader facilitating social learning, are examples of factors that explain the existence of both social learning and outcomes in terms of better environmental governance. It is concluded that since conditions for, and facilitation of, social learning are so important, research should focus more on what initiates social learning and how social learning can be mainstreamed across multiple levels of governanceAt the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Submitted: Paper 4: Submitted; Paper 5: Submitted

Are adaptations self-organized, autonomous, and harmonious? Assessing the social-ecological resilience literature

The paper analyzes how adaptability (adaptive capacity and adaptations) is constructed in the literature on resilience of social-ecological systems (SES). According to some critics, this literature views adaptability as the capacity of SES to self-organize in an autonomous harmonious consensus-building process, ignoring strategies, conflicting goals, and power issues. We assessed 183 papers, coding two dimensions of adaptability: autonomous vs. intentional and descriptive vs. normative. We found a plurality of framings, where 51% of the papers perceived adaptability as autonomous, but one-third constructed adaptability as intentional processes driven by stakeholders; where social learning and networking are often used as strategies for changing power structures and achieving sustainability transformations. For the other dimension, adaptability was used normatively in 59% of the assessed papers, but one-third used descriptive framings. We found no evidence that the SES literature in general assumes a priori that adaptations are harmonious consensus-building processes. It is, rather, conflicts that are assumed, not spelled out, and assertions of "desirable" that are often not clarified by reference to policy documents or explicit normative frameworks. We discuss alternative definitions of adaptability and transformability to clarify or avoid the notion of desirability. Complex adaptive systems framing often precludes analysis of agency, but lately self-organization and emergence have been used to study actors with intentions, strategies, and conflicting interests. Transformations and power structures are increasingly being addressed in the SES literature. We conclude that ontological clashes between social science and SES research have resulted in multiple constructive pathways

A new regime and then what? Cracks and tensions in the socio-technical regime of the Swedish heat energy system

Abstract Since the 70s, Sweden has gradually replaced oil with renewables to provide energy for heating, and today the country uses the highest total amount of renewable energy for heating of all EU Member States. However, there are signs of new tensions in the heat-energy system, and of lock-in of less sustainable practices. Using the multi-level perspective (MLP), this paper assesses to what degree the sociotechnical regime in Sweden's heat-energy system is stable and locked-in, and whether there are emerging tensions. We identify three key characteristics of the regime – interconnectedness, complementarity and saturation – that together risk creating tensions and lock-in of less sustainable practices. We conclude that the heat regime is facing an unstable future, with several challenges of growing importance

Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs):Representations, potentials, and conditions

Addressing sustainability and low carbon objectives calls for radical departures from existing socio-technical trajectories. The substantial implementation gap between sustainability objectives and current unsustainable paths justifies a continued search for more ambitious system transformations and clarity as to how they can be realised. The aim of this article is to unpack the feasibility of such sustainability transitions pathways (STPs), by identifying the analytical dimensions that need to be considered to address challenges for transitions governance and specifying how they can inform comprehensive evaluation efforts. We aim to offer practical examples of how multiple forms of knowledge can be mobilised to support strategic decision-making, and so complement traditional modelling-based scenario tools. We base our evaluation of STPs on a broad understanding of feasibility and elaborate a frame to mobilise what we see as three ‘facets’ of STPs: representations for exploring sustainability transitions potentials, as well as the conditions under which STPs may have greater chances of becoming realised. The resulting evaluation frame allow us to generate specific prescriptions about STPs feasibility that can focus interdisciplinary research on the relevance of mobilising a plurality of forms of knowledge in evaluation efforts, a more detailed understanding of the potential of a given solution or pathway, and more detailed assessment of different key dimensions. We end by discussing how the notion of STPs feasibility can help open up decision-making processes and what tangible types of interventions are relevant.</p

Assessing the adaptive capacity of multi-level water governance : ecosystem services under climate change in Mälardalen region, Sweden

Adaptive and multi-level governance is often called for in order to improve the management of complex issues such as the provision of natural resources and ecosystem services. In this case study, we analyse the contemporary multi-level governance system that manages water resources and its ecosystem services in a fresh water lake in Sweden. We assess the relative importance and barriers of three commonly highlighted components of adaptive governance: “feeding ecological knowledge into the governance system”, “use of ecological knowledge to continuously adapt the governance system”, and “self-organisation by flexible institutions acting across multiple levels”. Findings reveal that the trickiest aspect of adaptive governance capacity to institutionalise is the iterative nature of feedbacks and learning over time, and that barriers to the spread of knowledge on social-ecological complexity through the governance systems are partly political, partly complexity itself, and partly a more easily resolved lack of coordination. We call for caution in trusting crisis management to build more long-lasting adaptive capacity, and we conclude that a process of institutionalising adaptive capacity is inherently contingent on political process putting issues on the agenda

Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets

Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO2eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO2eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable energy provision, and a reduction of steel and energy demand. Without rapid progress in these aspects, the operation of current steel production equipment is likely to consume significant amounts of the remaining carbon budget. We recommend monitoring of emission-intensive asset aging and regulation of their operation